Mastering 'Metrics: The Path from Cause to Effect

Joshua D. Angrist, Jörn-Steffen Pischke
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Joshua D. Angrist, together with Guido Imbens, was awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 2021 “for their methodological contributions to the analysis of causal relationships”.

Applied econometrics, known to aficionados as 'metrics, is the original data science. 'Metrics encompasses the statistical methods economists use to untangle cause and effect in human affairs. Through accessible discussion and with a dose of kung fu–themed humor, Mastering 'Metrics presents the essential tools of econometric research and demonstrates why econometrics is exciting and useful.

The five most valuable econometric methods, or what the authors call the Furious Five--random assignment, regression, instrumental variables, regression discontinuity designs, and differences in differences--are illustrated through well-crafted real-world examples (vetted for awesomeness by Kung Fu Panda's Jade Palace). Does health insurance make you healthier? Randomized experiments provide answers. Are expensive private colleges and selective public high schools better than more pedestrian institutions? Regression analysis and a regression discontinuity design reveal the surprising truth. When private banks teeter, and depositors take their money and run, should central banks step in to save them? Differences-in-differences analysis of a Depression-era banking crisis offers a response. Could arresting O. J. Simpson have saved his ex-wife's life? Instrumental variables methods instruct law enforcement authorities in how best to respond to domestic abuse.

Wielding econometric tools with skill and confidence, Mastering 'Metrics uses data and statistics to illuminate the path from cause to effect.

- Shows why econometrics is important
- Explains econometric research through humorous and accessible discussion
- Outlines empirical methods central to modern econometric practice
- Works through interesting and relevant real-world examples

(Excerpt from amazon.com)

且聽下回分解──阿濃談中國古典小說

阿濃
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在我寫了「中國文化系列」七本後，終於決定介紹一下中國古典小說，這是一個龐大的文學載體，高度、寬度、深度都渺無邊際，有人畢生研究一部《紅樓夢》，還未能「吃透」，因此我完全沒有學術研究的野心。

我有點像在一次全國性試菜大會上，遍嘗京菜、滬菜、粵菜、川菜、湘菜、魯菜、淮揚菜……把我當時所想、所感、所發現說出來，目的在引發大家也有一試的興趣。

我做的是每一樣試少少，目的正如《呂氏春秋》和王安石說的「嘗鼎一臠，旨可知也。」吃鍋裡的一片肉，整煲的滋味也可知道了。當你覺得味道不錯時，就會一鍋又一鍋的大嚼。

(摘錄自博客來網路書店)

The Culture Code: The Secrets of Highly Successful Groups

Daniel Coyle
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New York Times best seller

The author of The Talent Code unlocks the secrets of highly successful groups and provides tomorrow’s leaders with the tools to build a cohesive, motivated culture.

Named one of the best books of the year by Bloomberg and Library Journal

Where does great culture come from? How do you build and sustain it in your group, or strengthen a culture that needs fixing? In The Culture Code, Daniel Coyle goes inside some of the world’s most successful organizations - including the US Navy’s SEAL Team Six, IDEO, and the San Antonio Spurs - and reveals what makes them tick. He demystifies the culture-building process by identifying three key skills that generate cohesion and cooperation, and explains how diverse groups learn to function with a single mind. Drawing on examples that range from Internet retailer Zappos to the comedy troupe Upright Citizens Brigade to a daring gang of jewel thieves, Coyle offers specific strategies that trigger learning, spark collaboration, build trust, and drive positive change. Coyle unearths helpful stories of failure that illustrate what not to do, troubleshoots common pitfalls, and shares advice about reforming a toxic culture.

Combining leading-edge science, on-the-ground insights from world-class leaders, and practical ideas for action, The Culture Code offers a roadmap for creating an environment where innovation flourishes, problems get solved, and expectations are exceeded. Culture is not something you are - it’s something you do. The Culture Code puts the power in your hands. No matter the size of your group or your goal, this book can teach you the principles of cultural chemistry that transform individuals into teams that can accomplish amazing things together.

(Excerpt from amazon.com)

文學的40堂公開課: 從神話到當代暢銷書, 文學如何影響我們, 帶領我們理解這個世界 (A Little History of Literature)

約翰．薩德蘭 (John Sutherland)
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★耶魯大學出版社知名「小歷史」（Little History）系列
文學是一種娛樂 傳達生活的面貌、啟發我們去思考；
文學是一場辯論 討論我們的世界，當今的處境和該前往的方向。
閱讀文學，就是閱讀我們自己

◎「小歷史」：從精妙的小故事，看歷史的大格局

英語文學研究權威、倫敦大學學院現代英語文學系名譽教授薩德蘭，融合數十年研究文學的心得與教授各年齡層學生的豐富經驗，為當今讀者篩選出構成我們今日文學面貌的最重要作品、作家，揭露隱藏在文學背後的故事、經典的閱讀重點、大師的創作理念，為你打好應對社會的人文學基礎！

˙史詩象徵國家的崛起，為什麼不是每個國家都有史詩？
˙希臘悲劇的關鍵在於英雄總是自己扣下扳機，令我們既憐憫他，又為自己而恐懼？
˙珍．奧斯汀筆下的世界那麼小，只寫女孩子如何覓得理想伴侶的故事，為何被現代讀者視為偉大的文學？
˙維吉尼亞．吳爾芙《戴洛維夫人》的開場，不過是一個人在路旁等著過馬路，為什麼要寫得這麼鉅細靡遺？

作者熟稔地打通古希臘神話、口述文學、中世紀文學、文藝復興時期文學，以及近代、現代與當代文學等人類文明史上各時期的文學發展概況，從《基爾加美緒史詩》、《貝奧武夫》，到《哈利波特》、《達文西密碼》與文學改編電影，以詼諧、輕鬆的語調向讀者引介各時期文學的關鍵詞，點評文學大家、知名作品與其在當時暨後世產生的影響，對作品本身提出易於理解的評論 ......

本書是一般讀者親近文學經典的最佳指南，也可以作為文學愛好者深入閱讀的參考書單，但其功用和意義遠不止於此。文學世界是現實生活的映射，在它看似虛構的表象裡包藏著一個真實的內核，為我們帶來靈感與啟示，幫助我們了解人生的意義。各個時期文學形態和價值命題的發展，更是當下社會的存在與心理面的折射，讓後世得以透過它們更具體地了解過去的世界。

(摘錄自博客來網路書店)

The Ride of a Lifetime: Lessons Learned from 15 Years as CEO of the Walt Disney Company

Robert Iger
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#1 NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • A memoir of leadership and success: The executive chairman of Disney, Time’s 2019 businessperson of the year, shares the ideas and values he embraced during his fifteen years as CEO while reinventing one of the world’s most beloved companies and inspiring the people who bring the magic to life.

NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY NPR

Robert Iger became CEO of The Walt Disney Company in 2005, during a difficult time. Competition was more intense than ever and technology was changing faster than at any time in the company’s history. His vision came down to three clear ideas: Recommit to the concept that quality matters, embrace technology instead of fighting it, and think bigger—think global—and turn Disney into a stronger brand in international markets.

Today, Disney is the largest, most admired media company in the world, counting Pixar, Marvel, Lucasfilm, and 21st Century Fox among its properties. Its value is nearly five times what it was when Iger took over, and he is recognized as one of the most innovative and successful CEOs of our era.

In The Ride of a Lifetime, Robert Iger shares the lessons he learned while running Disney and leading its 220,000-plus employees, and he explores the principles that are necessary for true leadership, including:

• Optimism. Even in the face of difficulty, an optimistic leader will find the path toward the best possible outcome and focus on that, rather than give in to pessimism and blaming.
• Courage. Leaders have to be willing to take risks and place big bets. Fear of failure destroys creativity.
• Decisiveness. All decisions, no matter how difficult, can be made on a timely basis. Indecisiveness is both wasteful and destructive to morale.
• Fairness. Treat people decently, with empathy, and be accessible to them.

This book is about the relentless curiosity that has driven Iger for forty-five years, since the day he started as the lowliest studio grunt at ABC. It’s also about thoughtfulness and respect, and a decency-over-dollars approach that has become the bedrock of every project and partnership Iger pursues, from a deep friendship with Steve Jobs in his final years to an abiding love of the Star Wars mythology.

“The ideas in this book strike me as universal” Iger writes. “Not just to the aspiring CEOs of the world, but to anyone wanting to feel less fearful, more confidently themselves, as they navigate their professional and even personal lives.”

(Excerpt from amazon.com)

情緒靈敏力：哈佛心理學家教你4步驟與情緒脫鉤 (Emotional Agility)

蘇珊‧大衛 (Susan David)
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最受企業人士歡迎的情緒課，
教你建立快速調整思緒的新能力，
做自己情緒的主人！

★2016年美好人生書獎（心理學類）
★《華爾街日報》暢銷書排行榜No.1
★ 2017 Axiom Business Book Awards

你是多慮煩憂型、情緒封裝型，還是情緒經常失控型？
為了努力保持一張專業的臉，讓你每天總是情緒過勞？
在工作上很難完全做自己，常常心口不一？
想靠正向思考擺脫壓力卻更有壓力，好比上鉤的魚，不斷掙扎卻於事無補？

當你開始這樣想──
你的工作──「這次簡報我一定會搞砸」
你的同事──「他們就是愛暗中較勁」
你的上司──「不能讓老闆覺得我做不到」
你的伴侶──「說了也沒用，反正不會有什麼改變」
你的家人──「老是錯過孩子學校活動，我真是失敗的父母」
小心你已經上鉤了！

研究情緒對行為影響已二十多年的哈佛團隊發現，情緒驅動想法，也影響行為並帶出其他感覺，然而，情緒並非事實，只是反映你看事情的觀點！
你感覺很糟，並非你真的很糟；他讓你生氣，跟你感覺生氣是兩回事。
有情緒是人的本能，善用最新認知科學，簡單四步驟讓人不再情緒一來就上鉤：

第1步：坦然面對（找出模式）
80%的成功純粹贏在到場現身，所謂現身就是抱持好奇心去面對自己的情緒與想法，如此才能找出哪些負面思緒最易讓你上鉤。
第2步：跨出去（標示情緒）
思考過程、容忍矛盾，然後一笑置之，改變觀點或用第三人稱和自己說話，接著戳破它：被困住是真的，但情緒並非事實。
第3步：依循價值觀（與情緒脫鉤）
隨波逐流會讓你失去工作和生活的意義，你的決定必須和你重視的事情產生連結，否則只是在浪費時間。
第4步：向前走（做最好的自己）
大腦非常在意你相信什麼，可塑性高的自我感覺是情緒靈敏力的基石。人生是一連串片刻的累積，每個片刻做些微調，加總起來就可產生重大改變。

情緒勞動攸關生活品質，更是工作表現的關鍵。最成功的人往往也是最懂得如何快速調整思緒，自我轉型，把壞情緒轉化為好能量的人。長期假裝或壓抑，表面上雲淡風輕，私下卻咬牙切齒的人，不僅會傷害自己，也會傷害組織。本書幫助你跳脫毫無助益的情緒慣性，建立人生成功最關鍵的能力，實現你想要的工作與生活。

(摘錄自博客來網路書店)